Up coming rains and this flooding mess.

6/12/11 North Dakota's Sunday, Not a Day of Real Rest, Floodwaters Ramp Up Higher Next Week, Again

Bullheader Said:
holy shisa. this is realy bad, an act of god, some people think that man has more power than we actualy do, that is why the corp is getting blamed for all this, they made room for the snowmelt, not the ungodly 8+ inch rains. some say they should have seen this coming, predicting rain and especialy snow is a very dificult thing to do in the long term, as crazy as it sounds, some say the forcasters in the 40's up until the time we had cumputers make the weather models were better because they "knew" what the weather was going to be. but those who say it's the corps fault should see what it would be like without the dams, (giggle).

5575 Said:

6/12/11 North Dakota's Sunday, Not a Day of Real Rest, Floodwaters Ramp Up Higher Next Week, Again

 

by Mark Armstrong on Sunday, June 12, 2011 at 3:57pm

 

 

North Dakota's Sunday, Not a Day of Real Rest

Floodwaters Ramp Up Higher Next Week, Again

 

By Mark Armstrong

6/12/2011

 

It's Pentecost Sunday, the day the Holy Spirit appeared as tongues of fire on the Apostles' heads and everyone could understand what was being said.  We could use a little of that around here as each day more all-time record floodwaters scream down 750 miles of the Missouri river, leaving an every widening wake of destruction.  North and south of Bismarck/Mandan in the unprotected "river bottomlands" on the 100-year floodplain, over 800 homes have been lost already, forcing out nearly 4,000 people.  More are flooding daily.  These landowners thought they had protection from Garrison dam.  And they did since 1953. They don't anymore, as the flood control spillway gates opened for the first time in history last month and keep opening wider nearly daily.  In just a couple of days 150,000 cubic feet of water per second will pour through the Garrison system.  This is an all-time record by a factor of  nearly 2.5 times, when a flow of 65,000 cubic feet per second was sustained in 1975.  Northwest in Montana, at the dam above, Ft. Peck, there are similar record outputs coming into the already full Garrison reservoir.  Record snowpacks from the Yellowstone river system could tilt the scales to even higher releases depending on rain events and summer melting patterns.  It is an historic event that will unfold through the middle of August before it will even begin to recede.

 

It is already going to be, when it is finally over, the worst natural (some will say man-made) disaster to ever strike North Dakota.  Up and down the Missouri from here, from the Crow Indian Agency in Montana, through North Dakota at Williston, here to Ft. Yates to Pierre and Yankton in South Dakota, and down into Nebraska and Iowa, the water is causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damages to homes and other buildings.  The power Big Muddy is out of its 60-year old man-made channel and uprooting 60-year old forests as it carves new channels and threatens government infrastructure.  The record snow packs are just starting to push even more water into the system of full reservoirs at all six mainstem dams on the Missouri river.  How much rain comes, and what the discharge levels would be under certain scenarios is apparently a well-guarded secret.   When I asked what could happen under certain melt conditions that produce an inflow higher than expected, I got government-ease, Army-talk for answers.  I made numerous attempts to get some straight answers.  (See yesterday's post).  After 12 emails, I gave up late last night.

 

Getting Straight Answers from the Corps

 

To be fair as one General from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers told us on the first bus tour last month, "No-one can reliably predict the weather out more than 24-36 hours.  That's about the best I can tell you."

 

That may be true, but there are certain risk factors downstream that people are trying to consider.  They see the losses some people have gone through after investing time and money in sandbags, sump pumps, generators and they want to know, should they stay and fight to save their homes as the groundwater seeps into their basements?  As Pastor Dan Sweeny said at Friday's Missouri RIver Update, "Citizens want to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em and have the wisdom when to stay and when to walk away."

 

Here is what one of my new Facebook "friends" from Burleigh County, whom I represent as a Commissioner, said in a message today to me....(and what I keep hearing and writing about here)...

 

"Good afternoon Commissioner Armstrong. I know that you have been very concerned about the citizens of Burleigh County so I have a question for you. My parents live out by the river on Sandy River Drive and our house has been surrounded by water for two weeks already. We had built our first clay dike preparing for 85,000 cfs release which after finishing it was under water 4 days later. We then started a second dike surrounding our house that is 6 feet tall. As of yesterday (6/11/11) we only have around a 1.5 feet to go before it goes over that dike. Currently, we are running 3 sump pumps and as long as the electricity stays on we are keeping most of the water out. We do have 2-3 inches in our master bedroom and living room. We have around 8 inches in our crawl space but that pump is pumping non-stop. My Dad, Larry Stute, would like to know since their house could totally be inundated with flood water if he will get any financial help from FEMA and/or Burleigh County. Four years ago when their house was paid off they decided to drop their flood insurance so therefore they have nothing but home owners insurance which doesn’t cover flooding. Do you know if there will be any financial help for them? We are concerned and aren’t getting any answers. You seem to be the guy to go to when you need a straight honest answer."

 

I hear that more often, from more people, than anything else.  They are not asking for money from the government. Although I am sure that will come when this is over.  They are asking for INFORMATION, a STRAIGHT ANSWER,  so they don't waste money on a futile attempt to save their homes.  So please U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, maybe call the Commander-in-Chief and ask him, to find the best minds in the government or the private sector and let's get some answers to some of our "What-if" questions that we all keep asking!!!

 

What One Weatherman, That I Trust, Says About What is Coming

 

I trust this meteorologist because you won't see him on TV.  He has a degree from Michigan.  He trades commodities and does very well at it.  He has no clients but himself.  Doesn't sell advice, won't sell advice.  So I asked him to look at the situation for me three days ago.  And here's his answer to the question of "What if the rain is heavier than the Corps' forecast model is predicting?"

 

Here is what he emailed to me this afternoon...

 

The Corps just won't tell you or anyone in the public what their guess is but surely

they must be having a horrible real life nightmare looking at this upcoming weather pattern.

 

 

It has the high "potential" to cause record rainfall amounts. I'm confident that there will be some

extreme rains that come in several rounds, the heaviest next week......but theres possible good news.

 

There is a decent chance, based on the position and configuration of the jet stream coming over

a big heat ridge in the south that the zone of extreme and repeat rains next week will set up south of you.

 

If however, it sets up in the Upper Mo River Valley, discharge rates would go thru the roof, way higher than 150,000 (cfs) This atmospheric set up is capable of creating massive flooding in places that have no flooding right now. Imagine what 5+ inches of rain across a large area of the MO River Basin would do.

 

The "potential" good things are :

1. Maybe next week(week 2) the extreme rains will set up farther south. This would block moisture and the heaviest rains from hitting you.

2. Temps will be very chilly, especially week 2. This will reduce snowmelt. Heck, the higher elevations will probably add snow next week!!!

 

That would be ok if it postponed the snowmelt to a time, later this Summer when the rain shuts down. 

Rain can melt a lot of snow fast. Heavy rains in the higher elevations would be a double whammy. 

 

The best case scenario above, is probably close to what the Corp is expecting. It's still likely for enough rain to fall to at least  meet their forecasts.

Worst case scenario is very much in play.

 

Final note, late in week 2, models show the heat ridge greatly expanding, possibly across most of the Midwest.

This could either shut down the rains completely or it could take a zone of heavy rains in week 2 that was south of you and shift it into MT/ND.

 

 Very dynamic weather coming with 3 for sure features the next 2 weeks.

 

1. A heat ridge with no rain and 100 temps in the south.

2. A zone of extreme rains around the periphery of the heat ridge

3. Unseasonably chilly with many chances for rain in the N.Plains/Rockies

 

So there you have it.  Another guess of what could happen.  I've got another hydrologist looking at the data as well to come up with flows against these events.  I know it doesn't move the ball much in terms of worst-case scenarios. Fact is, we are in the worst-case scenario now, at least one one none of us could have imagined in April.  Some of us start figuring out in mid-May that the flood was worse than what the Corps was saying and no-one listened to us then.  Now, we just want some ideas on how bad it could be, instead of where we are "currently anticipated to be based on the present model."  That is what frustrates homeowners, they just want straight answers.  They want to know if they have a fighting chance to save their homes.

 

We all understand we are still talking theories and rain events that, as the Army Corps General noted, are not worth predicting more than two days out.  However, the dams are full.  The schedule is counting on time to get some capacity now, catch a break from Mother Nature with the record snowpacks in Montana and pray there are no all-time daily rainfall events north of us through mid-August.   So tells us, if none of that happens, how bad can it get?  If all if it happens, what will happen to the release schedules and then everything in between. Please.

 

Is that too much to ask?

 

All of that may be too much to ask for the Corps for information for, I don't know.

 

So keep praying that it all comes together on what promises to be a tense next two months.

 

 

 

 

Allen Said:
Actually, that bigger storm is up shellac'ing the Price and Wilton areas.  I can see her out my back windows.  Fairly ominous, but not much rain in Bis as I write this.

I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that this doesn't run across the Minot to Kenmare area.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=bis&gage=regn8&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1"
if you look here, you will get a big suprise, it might be faulty but I don't know.
 

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=bis&gage=regn8&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1"
if you look here, you will get a big suprise, it might be faulty but I don't know.